The 4 games that could bring chaos to the NFL playoff picture this weekend

It’s Week 15 of the NFL season. On the surface, this week’s schedule looks like it’ll be pretty uneventful — most of our experts agree on which team will win each game. But there are a few games that could potentially shake up the playoff race.

With just three weeks left in the regular season, a win or a loss could be critical to teams’ seeding in the postseason, or if they make it to the playoffs at all. At this point in the NFC, the Vikings, Rams, Packers, and Bears are all contenders for the sixth wild card spot. In the AFC, the Steelers are in control for the sixth spot, but the Titans, Texans, or even the Browns, could all wind up there instead.

Let’s take a look at some of this weekend’s games that could cause chaos in the playoff picture.

All odds listed below are from Draft Kings, updated as of Dec. 13 at 8 a.m. ET.

Bears at Packers (-4.5)

Current playoff standings:

Bears: No. 8 in the NFC (out of the playoff picture)

Packers: No. 2 in the NFC (have not clinched)

This game opened the 2019 NFL season and is back for round two. While the Packers won the first meeting 10-3, this week’s matchup looks particularly intriguing. The Bears have won their last three games, most notably knocking off the Cowboys last week on Thursday night, 31-24.

It helps that this game is at Lambeau Field, but the Packers might be in trouble if Mitchell Tribusky keeps playing like he has the last two weeks. In Chicago’s wins over Detroit and Dallas, he’s put up his best numbers of the season, throwing for a combined 582 yards and six touchdowns, while rushing for 67 yards and a touchdown.

Although the Packers have also won the last two weeks, Week 14’s close 20-15 win over Washington at home may have some fans worried about facing the Bears on Sunday. The good news for the Packers is that even if they lose on Sunday, they still have an 87 percent chance to make the playoffs per the New York Times, but they would likely lose their No. 2 seed in the NFC.

If the Bears lose, they’ll be out of the NFC North race and could even be out of playoff contention altogether.

Texans at Titans (-3)

Current playoff standings:

Texans: No. 4 seed in the AFC (have not clinched)

Titans: No. 7 seed in the AFC (out of the playoff picture)

Sunday’s game between these two didn’t look all that interesting a few weeks ago. But given the Titans’ current 6-1 run paired with the Texans’ upset loss to the Broncos last week, it’s pretty important to the AFC South race.

What’s also unexpected about this one is that it will be quite the exciting quarterback matchup. Deshaun Watson has been a human highlight reel all season long, and he might have been the MVP frontrunner if not for some dude named Lamar Jackson. Meanwhile, the Titans have lost just once with Ryan Tannehill as the starter. He’s coming off his most impressive performance of the season against the Oakland Raiders, throwing for 391 yards, three touchdowns, and with a passer rating of 140.

Both teams’ passing defenses are equally mediocre, too. The Titans are 25th in passing defense by yards allowed, and the Texans are 27th. Whoever has the best outing under center will likely give their team a victory in this one.

Most importantly, the winner of this matchup will take control of the division — for this week at least. We will get a rematch in Week 17, after all. So if the Texans lose this one, beat the Bucs in Week 16, and then beat the Titans in the last week of the regular season, they’ll win the division and host a game in the Wild Card Round.

For the Titans, it’s a bit tricker since they play the Saints in between their games against Houston. Beating the Texans twice, or once while also knocking off New Orleans, would put them in good shape. If they lose two out of three, they’d have to hope for the Steelers in front of them to lose to get a wild card spot.

Bills at Steelers (-2.5)

Current playoff picture:

Bills: No. 5 seed in the AFC (have not clinched)

Steelers: No. 6 seed in the AFC (have not clinched)

One of the best-looking matchups of the weekend has major playoff implications, but mostly for the Steelers. As it stands right now, the Steelers would be a No. 6 seed in the AFC. If the Steelers lose to the Bills, but beat the Jets next week, their playoff chances go down to just 32 percent, per the New York Times. An upset over the Ravens in the regular season finale would earn them a spot, but as long as the Steelers win in Week 15, their chances stand at 84 percent.

Much of the Steelers’ late-season surge is a credit to head coach Mike Tomlin. Despite losing Ben Roethlisberger to injury early in the season, combined with numerous other injuries and distractions this year, Pittsburgh still controls its own playoff destiny.

A lot of that success is also due to Tomlin starting Devlin Hodges over Mason Rudolph at quarterback. In his last two starts, Hodges has thrown for 364 yards and two touchdowns, along with an average of 9.1 yards per attempt. But Pittsburgh’s defense remains the heart and soul of this team. In the last three games, the unit has allowed just 4.3 points per game in the second half — a number that leads the NFL.

If the Bills win, they clinch a playoff spot. They came close to knocking off the Ravens last week, so don’t expect Buffalo to not show up for this one. Losing this game and to New England next week would affect their seeding, but the Bills haven’t lost two in a row all season.

Rams (-0.5) at Cowboys

Current playoff picture:

Rams: No. 7 seed in the NFC (out of the playoffs)

Cowboys: No. 4 seed in the NFC (have not clinched)

The Rams have won their last two games — against the Cardinals and the Seahawks — which is encouraging, given their 1-2 month of November. Quarterback Jared Goff is now playing his best football of this season, and Todd Gurley is more productive, too. The Rams are 8-5, and even though it would help if teams ahead of them lost (the Vikings, for instance), winning out would improve their playoff chances.

On the other hand, the Cowboys are moving in the complete opposite direction, riding a three-game losing streak. They were just blown out by the Bears through the three quarters, but even a strong late-game effort by Dak Prescott wasn’t enough to keep them from dropping below .500. But if they Cowboys can win on Sunday and against the Eagles next week, they’ll win the NFC East. It looks like this will be Jason Garrett’s final season in Dallas, though if he wins a playoff game, that just might be enough to keep him around for one more season.

If the Rams come out on top Sunday, it might still be late for them to make the playoffs, but it would increase their playoff chances to 46 percent. Losing would drop their chances at making the playoffs to 9 percent. Yikes!